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Armenia-Turkey: Will economic dividends be able to spur the protocol ratification?

The second half of 2009 promises to become one of the most tense periods of modern Armenian history, following the publication on August 31st of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols providing for normalization of bilateral ties.

In the protocols Turkey has set preconditions, according to which Yerevan has to recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity as well as the current Armenian-Turkish state border.

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9
21.09.2009 23:01
Esh mi satkir, garun kga.
8
21.09.2009 17:03
Armen and others: How much is Georgia's economy dominated by Turkey, as the borders there are wide open? Same question about Azerbaijan. Since 1991 Turkish businessmen have been active all over the former Soviet Union and the Balkans, but the returns are obviously much higher with countries like Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhastan etc. What have Armenian businessmen achieved? A question arises at this point. How many Armenians in Armenia owe their living to investment by diaspora Armenian businessmen there?
7
19.09.2009 15:51
To everyone, this is what will happen after border is opened : 1. There will be a visible increase in Turkish goods in the markets and shops in Armenia. 2. With time, people will see more and Turkish nationals in the streets of Yerevan: tourists, journalists and prospecting visitors. 3. With Armenia’s dependency on the open birder growing. After a while, you will here about business collaboration and venture in certain fields with Turkish companies. 4. In parallel you will start seeing small Turkish shop owners in Yerevan streets and other towns. 5. After a while, you will see on TV Armenian businessmen shaking hands with Turkish investors. At first Armenians will keep management. After a while, you will see Turkish management taking over. 6. You will start seeing Turkish restaurants in Yerevan etc. 7. After Yerevan, the flow will start moving towards Karabakh. 8. After 20 years, Turkey and Karabagh will be connected again. What about Armenians, you may ask? We won’t let that happen. The answer: That is TOTAL NONSENSE. In the current economic and political situation EVERY Armenian will accept to be bribed and bought, including the president. A small shop owner will sell his shop to a Turkish buyer who will bribe his way into Yerevan. The seller will take the money and leave to the US. The factory owner will little by little pile up money in Europe and US and will after a while give the management away to Turks and go and live with his family that he would have already send away. By this time no politician will even dare question anything Turkey says. If the Turks close the border again, there will be hunger in the country. To people like VAchagan who think they can do anything they want: with the current balance of economic forces and degree of evolution opening the border is an insanity.
6
19.09.2009 14:45
Armen, very good points in your comments, and Armenia has the potential of doing much better even under the blockade. But the importance of opening the border with Turkey seems to be more about security and diversity. Notice when all this started? just after Georgia war. Armenia's leadership realized that Georgia is not reliable and the way to Russia through Georgia is almost certainly blocked for a good while. I believe some 60% of exports go through Georgia, thats what they are trying to replace. Maybe they want to diversify the routes to help the import/export monopolies, i don't know, but Armenia needs access to ports other than Batumi. Armenia needs access to the black sea and Mediterranean. That doesn't mean i support the protocols, i'm just giving my explanation of why Armenia's leadership find opening the borders important. Opening borders shouldn't have any price or compromise...
5
19.09.2009 08:17
Saro, I do get the picture...no worries mate...! I also firmly believe that if Turkey was sincere...they could just open the border...here's the problem...as I a stupid son of a Diasporan see it... and again, please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...! I do not mind...! Turkey feels important because it thinks the USA needs it in the Muslim world...! and true enough, the USA is shaking over this.... What the USA does not realize or know or understand is: the Muslim World.... ! The USA can put the same forces in Greece, Armenia, Poland or wherever they choose and things will change...! Turkey is not a big power and will never be...Turkey is trying to show the world that they can make peace with Syria and Iraq... Unless you are totally ignorant Syria and Iraq and the rest of the Arab World know they were raped by Turkey big tine....and they do not trust Turkey and never will ....! Need I say more... but will gladly do so if called upon...My maternal Grand pa .... well he lost 14 brothers in the struggle...anybody tells me there was no Genocide... ? God will punish them
4
19.09.2009 06:27
@B. Baronian, @Armen you peope didn´t get the point I am agianst these two protocols, because i do believe , if Turkey realy has any intention to open the border gates, she can do, because the treaty of Kars is still in force... but the problem is :Turk-Azerbaijani has become a tool in the hand of Turkey... and Turkey likes to get some divident out of the situation... or "created tandom"
3
18.09.2009 21:18
Armen, Thanks for your reply...I am learning something new everyday..We, in the Diaspora, have these romantic dreams about Armenia and Armenians. It's too bad Armenia has no exports...but the RA is a young nation and it needs to build industry and commerce and it can be done...Singapore has done it in a relatively short period of time... Armenia can do it too...!
2
18.09.2009 18:17
Answer to Baronian: Why do you need a crystal ball. You have the case of Iran. The Armenian-Iranian border is open. The Iranian market is open and friendly to us. Through Iran Armenia has access to sea, Mideast etc During the last decade what has Armenia done with it? Has Armenia exported anything? NO. Armenia does not have Exports. It is only importing. You need investment, stable legal system, entrepreneurs etc to produce things. Stop dreaming, Armenia has NOTHING to export to Europe. The only thing Armenia exports are human beings and a lot through human trafficking. The economic problems of Armenia are not related to closed border with Turkey. They are INTERNAL to Armenia: corruption, criminal state, etc. How will opening the border change that??? Opening the border with Armenia in its current weak and miserable state will simply mean that Armenia will be totally inundated with Turkish products.
1
18.09.2009 17:14
I wish I had a crystal ball...that's all I can say right now. I mean, opening the border is gotta have positive effects for the Republic of Armenia... cheaper way to access European markets and the rest of the world...easier in/out flow of technology...so needed to improve our lot...cultural exchange between the RA and the rest of the world...and yes, with Turkey too...lots more positives can be listed...just like I said at the Begining...wish I had a crystal ball to have a quick look/see at what negatives could be there....!
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