The estimations given to the state development program on Armenia’s economy in 2010 by pro-government and opposition representatives are radically different – from hope-inspiringly optimistic to radically pessimistic.

On January 27, Vardan Aramyan, Deputy Finance Minister of Armenia, Gagik Minasyan, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Financial and Budgetary Affairs of the National Assembly, and member of the committee, oppositionist Ara Nranyan (Dashnaktsutyun), summed up the economic indexes of 2009 and made different predictions for 2010.

Aramyan, for example, stated that the economic growth (1.2 percent) prescribed by the State Budget 2010, will, in fact, be even higher.

“Defining a 1.2-percent economic growth, we, in fact, carry out a conservative policy, because following the ongoing anti-crisis policy, we expect even better indexes,” the deputy finance minister said.

Considering 2009 to be a hard economic year, Minasyan stated that the government successfully implemented the anti-crisis program, reducing social expenditures, and trying to diversify the economy.

“Our government tried to get rid of the low diversification of our economy (the main reason for our economy’s vulnerability), continuing the struggle against shadow economy, preparing investments in the diamond industry. Of course, there were many investments in the construction and mining industry (the two main sectors that are responsible for low diversification, because the investments in these sectors have a multiplication effect),” Minasyan said.

Armenia saw a 14.4-percent economic decline in 2009 (with a 37.4 percent decline registered in construction and 7.8 percent fall in industry).

According to Aramyan, one of the main programs of the government for 2010 directed at the diversification of the economy is investing the bulk of the $100 million loan (issued by Russia) in the diamond industry.

Nranyan, however, is not satisfied with this and other steps.

“Currently no constructive qualitative changes are made for the diversification of the economy. As a result, at the end of 2010 we will have the same situation in the economy as we used to have during recent years, including this year, as, for example, in import-export relations, for supporting local producers. The government does not implement any new, so-called, anti-crisis program, with the help of those loans, but it continues the programs initiated before the crisis,” Nranyan states.