Many Armenian political analysts believe that the forthcoming Yerevan municipal elections will not have a fundamental influence on the layout of political and economic powers in the country, at least in the initial stage, as it is not the election that will create a new palette of domestic politics, but the already shaped domestic policy palette itself will ‘create’ the election results.

There is little doubt that the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) will concentrate all the levers of Yerevan government in its hands. That concerns both the mayor’s chair and those of heads of Yerevan communities.

At the same time, the ruling coalition members – Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir – can and will ‘demand’ posts, for example, at a level of deputy mayor or of leaders of two-three communities.

The biggest changes in the country’s post-election domestic policy will be connected to the orientation of the wealthiest political party – Prosperous Armenia. That opinion is shared by the majority of political analysts.

“Armenia’s ruling coalition is facing a serious crisis, and the further deepening of that crisis can lead to fundamental divergence of standpoints and actions of the powers representing the coalition,” says Manvel Sargsyan, an expert at the Armenian Center for National and International Studies.

He particularly emphasizes the role of Prosperous Armenia. Considering the existing disagreement on certain issues between the party leader Gagik Tsarukyan and the government, that political force might turn into opposition. As Sargsyan says, in order to be able to make any forecast on the coalition’s future we have to wait and see who will become the dominating force in it, but it is very complicated, since “all the components of the coalition have started to develop independently.”

“It is for the first time that Armenia is facing a situation when power is not monopolized and when some of its components may opt for cooperation with a really strong opposition,” the expert says.

The opposition itself thinks that if the City Council elections are transparent, the Armenian National Congress (ANC) led by first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan will have 40 percent of the votes, and Prosperous Armenia will hold the second position by the number of votes. This statement was made by ANC member Hovhannes Hovhannisyan, who also added that the authorities are trying to make the election campaign look bleak and gloomy in order to discourage potential voters and minimize their participation in the election. The clashes between the supporters of the RPA and Prosperous Armenia are a proof of that.

There is an impression today that if the municipal elections do influence the further power layout in Yerevan and countrywide, it will be in terms of Prosperous Armenia’s post-election standpoint. If it defects to the ANC’s side, a brand new political situation may take shape in the country.

Such prospects cannot be excluded since re-division of the shadow sector will follow immediately after the election, and that can provoke a conflict between ‘the main shadow business owners’: RPA and Prosperous Armenia.

Public relations specialist Karen Kocharyan says that the RPA has become noticeably popular “due to the right choice of a candidate for the mayor’s post and the competently built election campaign. Psychologically, people start liking the previously unapproachable official who now says hello, shakes their hands, embraces them and behaves like an equal.”


According to him, both the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Dashnaktsutyun and the ANC have a certain electorate which usually remains the same. Kocharyan says Dashnaktsutyun’s withdrawal from the ruling coalition may have weakened its position, but hardly resulted in any shrinkage of its supporters. “Orinats Yerkir has a very weak position, as, I suppose, it lost the majority, if not a 100 percent of its supporters after the presidential elections in 2008,” the specialist adds.

Meanwhile, Armen Rustamyam, an ARF Executive Council representative, says that “none of the parties will manage to poll 40 percent of the votes during the Yerevan City Council elections.” According to him, buying votes, using government levers or any other methods used during the campaign will not help the participants to reach the 40 percent benchmark – unless glaring violations and forging of election results occur, which, the parties will not venture to do.

Hence, Yerevan municipal elections can create prerequisites for certain changes in the long term. However, such changes, first of all, will be conditioned by more important and essential issues, such as improving relations with Turkey and settling the Karabakh issue.

The fact that the authorities, and first of all the RPA, are challenged with the need for solving these issues as soon as possible, can provoke a serious conflict both within the party and among the authorities on the whole. Apparently if by then Prosperous Armenia has established tighter and more public bonds with the ANC, a threat may emerge of power turnover by the “new opposition”. However, if the RPA and Prosperous Armenia come to a complete mutual understanding on all the issues in the process of “shadow division of Yerevan”, no serious changes should be expected in the power layout.