The number of Armenians leaving the country for work decreased by 56 percent this spring compared to a year ago.

A reported reversal of trend in Armenia’s outward migration during the typical period of guest worker movement means that potentially more people will be in search of jobs this year after losing opportunities for jobs abroad.

Armenia’s top government executive in charge of migration affairs says for the first time in years a positive balance of those leaving and those returning to the republic was observed in March, the month when seasonal migrant workers typically return to their jobs abroad after a short winter stay in the country.

“Migration is a very sensitive phenomenon,” says Gagik Yeganyan, head of the Migration Agency at the Armenian Ministry of Local Government. “Changing social, economic and political processes are reflected on migration phenomena as well. Naturally, a cataclysm like the current economic crisis could not but have an impact on it.”

Seasonal migrant workers who return in late autumn and leave for work abroad in early spring were the first to feel the impact, according to Yeganyan.

An estimated 95 percent of the total number of Armenian “gastarbeiters” (guest workers, as they are known in Russia) seek jobs in Russia, with about 60-70 percent in construction. Meanwhile, Russia is believed to be among the economies most affected by the deepening global crisis resulting in dwindling of construction and other sectors that used to provide jobs for foreign workers.

Armenia’s Migration Agency provides its evaluations based on information about the movement of people received from border customs.

Yeganyan says that as a rule, the largest negative balance of this movement is observed in the period from February to April.

The “negative” gap in Armenia between those who left and those who arrived during February-March in 2008 increased by 46 percent as compared to the same period of 2007.

Meanwhile, this year has revealed an opposite trend, with the gap closing by 56 percent against figures reported for February-March 2008, according to Yeganyan.

Thus, a “positive migration balance” of 1,200 people was reported for March of this year, with nearly 70,000 people who stayed instead of going potentially joining the army of unemployed in Armenia.

Dwindling private remittances wired to households in Armenia by family members or relatives working abroad appears to be another major consequence of the reduced “migrant worker export” this year.

(Official statistics posted by Armenia for January-May 2009 shows about a 40 percent fall in remittances against the same period in 2008.)

“In the past five to six years remittances grew by an average of 25 percent annually. Last year’s fourth quarter showed a 20 percent (or more) decrease in remittances as compared to the preceding three-month period. But we all know that remittances to Armenia tend to increase at the end of the year,” says Yeganyan. “Already in Quarter Four, remittances to individuals through bank transactions decreased from $530 million to $430 million. Had the previous year’s trend continued, the amount of remittances in the mentioned period would have totaled some $700 million.”

The trend has continued into this year as well. In January, remittances decreased by 25 percent and in April by 39 percent. And again, 80 percent of private remittances to Armenia come from Russia.

In contrast to previous years characterized by rapid growth in passenger flows, this indicator has also fallen in 2009, according to the Migration Agency.

“This year the flows of passengers have reduced by 1-2 percent (or 7,600 people). Perhaps the number is not large, but the phenomenon shows that fewer people can afford to travel. This is also the consequence of the crisis,” says Yeganyan.