Political analyst Richard Giragosian considers it possible that the current Armenian-Turkish negotiations may eventually lead to a renewed Karabakh war, which he estimates will take the Azerbaijani army some 10-12 years to get prepared for, because the Armenian army is incomparably stronger.

Speaking about the already signed Armenian-Turkish protocols Giragosian, who heads the Yerevan-based Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), called it an achievement that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not included in the protocols.

“For Turkey it means that it is no longer possible to return the issue into the protocols, and the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations are a second track, which is much slower,” said Giragosian.

Giragosian believes real changes will be registered not in the mode of actions of official Baku, Armenia, the Minsk Group or Nagorno-Karabakh but rather the crucial step will belong to Russia, which will change its pro-Armenian stance into a neutral one and thus “showing to Europeans and Americans that Russia is ready to take more constructive steps.”

The analyst also shared the concerns about the lack of public awareness, because both countries do not provide transparency, which creates grounds for misinformation.

Giragosian does not expect the Turkish parliament to take any step to ratify the protocols until early next year. “This, of course, is also connected with the 95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide on April 24. This is a risky strategy, because Armenian patience is not endless.”

The messages continuously sent from Brussels and Washington, as Giragosian believes, also prompt Turkey to honor its commitments on time.