2007 Review: Foreign policy and the pursuit of Nagorno-Karabakh settlementA corresponding PACE resolution was adopted at the plenary session on January 23. The document stated progress achieved by Armenia in fulfilling its obligations. Armenian Parliament Speaker Tigran Torosyan evaluated that document as an “unprecedented positive resolution ever passed by the PACE on Armenia’s fulfillment of its obligations to the Council of Europe.” Nevertheless, despite even the seriousness of the meeting in Strasbourg, it was Hrant Dink’s murder that marked the start of the year and outlined one of its major characteristics – aggravating tensions in Armenian-Turkish relations. The start of the year was marked by another surge of optimistic moods among influential Armenian organizations regarding the possible adoption of a resolution on the Armenian genocide by the U.S. Congress. The optimism had first of all been conditioned by the victory of Democrats in the latest congressional elections as well as the statement of the newly elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that a draft resolution would be taken to the House floor until April 24, 2007. Resolution 106 was submitted to the House for consideration on January 30. The whole year has been impregnated for Armenians around the world and Armenia’s foreign policy department with expectations for the resolution to be passed. The foreign policy aspect of 2007 from the very beginning implied two phases of boost, and they were separated from each other by the period of holding parliamentary elections in Armenia. However, the first phase ended earlier than expected in connection with a new unforeseen circumstance – a sudden death of Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan on March 24. During the first two months of 2007, Armenia’s president met with the heads of Russia and France – two of the three states that co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group on the settlement of the Karabakh problem. Robert Kocharyan met with Vladimir Putin in the Russian resort town of Sochi on January 24, and with outgoing Jacques Chirac in Paris on February 19. It is demonstrative that in-between these two meetings the region of the Karabakh standoff was visited by the OSCE Minsk Group mediators. In particular, on January 27, cochairmen Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Mathew Bryza (USA) and Bernard Fassier (France) visited Stepanakert and met with Nagorno-Karabakh Republic President Arkady Ghukasyan. The news was the statement by the Russian diplomat that “there is a common opinion”, but at the same time Merzlyakov refused to reveal details citing confidentiality of the talks. Not much information was reported about the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Armenia. Apparently, the sides discussed not only the Karabakh problem, but also Russia’s stronger economic presence in Armenia and prospects of forming a vertical geopolitical axis Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran. Remarkably, the supply of Iranian gas to Armenia started on March 19. The ceremony of opening the trans-boundary section of the gas pipeline was attended by the presidents of Armenia and Iran, Robert Kocharyan and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In order to increase the volumes of import of Iranian gas ArmRosgazprom launched the construction of a 197-kilometer gas pipeline – Kajaran-Ararat. On the whole, 2007 was marked by the increased Russian capital on the Armenian market. In particular, Russia’s number one wireless operator Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), purchased 80 percent of shares of International Cell Holding which is a 100 percent owner of the K-Telecom (brand name VivaCell) and also signed an option agreement for the purchase of the remaining 20 percent. In the ending year Armenia also made a decision to shut down the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant whose term of operation ends in 2016 according to technical requirements. But by signing the New European Neighborhood Policy Action Plan, Armenia undertook to close the station within the shortest possible term. Russian Atomic Energy Agency (Rosatom) Head, former Prime Minister Sergey Kiriyenko stated his agency’s readiness to render assistance to the Armenian side not only in building a new block, but also in taking a financial part in the project. The strengthening Russian presence in Armenia indeed became one of the characteristics of the ending year. But the most important foreign policy event of the year for Armenia was the meeting of the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Council in Madrid, Spain. On November 29, the countries mediating a Karabakh settelement (Russia, the United States, France) gave the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan so-called “fair and balanced basic principles of a peaceful settlement of the conflict”. It is not concretely known what the provisions imply, but the following statement of US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns in this connection is demonstrative: “Any agreements that will be reached on Kosovo cannot be applied to other conflicts. The situation in Kosovo is specific and I do not think that any parallels can be drawn between the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and a possible solution in Kosovo.” It is demonstrative that the parties to the conflict were urged to complete the current stage of negotiations by the approval of the basic principles and immediately pass on to a new phase – development of a draft comprehensive peace treaty. Besides, they were also asked to prepare their populations to peace and stop issuing any statements admitting the option of war as a means of solving the conflict. In this connection, the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Council issued a statement on Nagorno-Karabakh. “It is with pleasure that we point out that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to continue the current negotiations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the coming electoral year. We demonstrate support for the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ effort to forge together with the party basic principles of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. We strongly urge both parties to overcome the last remaining differences that they have thereby approving the general concept of settlement and get down to the development of a comprehensive peace agreement on that basis.” In this aspect, it should be pointed out that the upcoming year promises not only internal political activity connected with the presidential election slated for February but also foreign policy activity to a much greater extent. As it was unequivocally stated at the meeting of the OSCE Foreign Ministers’ Council, the international diplomatic community intends to solve the Karabakh problem in the visible future.
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