What seemed to be a dormant rapprochement process between Armenia and Turkey after the two estranged neighbors signed diplomatic protocols in October finally reached its next landmark in Yerevan as the Constitutional Court of Armenia upheld the constitutionality of the documents Tuesday. The next stop for the protocols is parliament for ratification by lawmakers.

While the National Assembly of Armenia only now begins hearings, the protocols in Turkey were forwarded to parliament still in October, where they have stalled, as no discussion on the documents has been held either in full chamber or in commissions.

As expected, in making the decision the Constitutional Court in Armenia did not bow to pressure coming from a nationalist protest staged by the Dashnak party and its allies outside the court. Nor were jurists impressed by the sizable document submitted by the Dashnaks, in which the party pointed out which specific points of the protocols they deemed as running counter to the Armenian laws and how. That document, though, was attached to the case heard at the Constitutional Court.

Stepan Safaryan, the parliamentary leader of the opposition Heritage party, described the Court’s findings as a “foisted decision” which “legitimizes the disgraceful foreign policy being carried out by [President] Serzh Sargsyan.”

Critics of the protocols consider the parliament to be the next field for their battle, yet many call these efforts by the opposition “Don Quixote’s battle”, as the 24 votes of the two opposition factions in parliament are not enough to stop the ratification process. (A total of 66 “yeas” are needed from the 131-member parliament.)

Meanwhile, the Armenian National Congress led by ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan described both Dashnaktsutyun and the Constitutional Court as government “puppets.” While criticizing Sargsyan over a wide-range of domestic policy issues, the Ter-Petrosyan-led opposition has been less categorical and more supportive regarding the foreign policy of the current administration.

Many believe the only possible option for the protocols not to be implemented now is if Turkey refuses to ratify them or continues to set preconditions for improving relations with Yerevan.

This was clearly evidenced in the interview given by Armenia’s Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan to the Turkish Hurriyet Daily News late last year when he said that if Turkey continues its “preconditions” for the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, then Armenia will not ratify the documents. (The premiere was referring to comments from Ankara saying that “normalized” relations between Armenia-Turkey hinges on a settlement of the Karabakh conflict.)

“The position of the Armenian side has not changed. However, judging from Turkish Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan’s statements (December 7 in Washington, D.C.), it seems that the Turkish position has shifted, which means that the Turkish Parliament may propose certain preconditions. If Turkey comes up with preconditions, Armenia will be free to act likewise,” underscored Sargsyan in that interview.

Some analysts in both Armenia and Turkey, however, speak about Turkey moderating its “preconditions” policy.

Among them is Director of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, political analyst Stepan Grigoryan, who says that Turkey’s categorical stance has “gone through a certain positive evolution.”

“While a year ago they demanded that Armenian troops withdraw from five districts that make up the security zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, now they speak only about the need for some progress to be made in the Karabakh settlement process,” says Grigoryan.

A similar tendency was observed also in Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s latest statement at a conference with Turkish ambassadors in Mardin on January 10.

“No one should think that fixed borders are permanent. Certainly, we should respect the borders in the frames of friendship and accept them like as European structure does. The borders should be transformed from a wall into a door. A door is for entrance, a door is open, whereas a wall cannot be open,” said the top Turkish diplomat vaguely.

Simultaneously, the linkage of Armenian-Turkish relations with Armenian-Azerbaijani relations by some still continues in Turkey.

In its January 10 article titled “Armenia Ready to Take Further Steps but Warns Ankara not to Linger” Turkish Today’s Zaman cites the Turkish foreign minister as saying that they are inclined to ratify the protocols, but adds: “The opposition and the public would be convinced about the benefit of normalizing relations with Armenia if there is progress in the talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

“Turkey was sincere in its intent in signing the protocols with Armenia. Normalizing relations with Armenia is something we sincerely desire on its own, but it would also help eliminate other problems in the region,” a source from the Foreign Ministry told the Turkish paper: http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-198081-armenia-ready-to-take-further-steps-but-warns-ankara-not-to-linger.html

The paper also quoted foreign affairs expert Mensur Akgun, who recently visited Armenia, as saying that “the Armenian side argues that Turkey’s conditions help neither the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia nor the rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

“Rightly or wrongly, this is something Turkey should take into consideration. They have a point that the processes are parallel, but if one of the tracks becomes a precondition for [progress on] the other, then the cycle of conflict can never be broken,” said Akgun.